Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-13 3.081735 3.697419 4.385354 5.208217 6.162773 7.232204 8.517868
2025-04-20 2.267717 3.113127 4.168993 5.570914 7.367975 9.577362 12.480005
2025-04-27 1.692886 2.615671 3.884289 5.722767 8.279426 11.663747 16.427564
2025-05-04 1.336434 2.291074 3.717119 5.942340 9.252114 13.903188 20.818931
2025-05-11 1.037672 1.961057 3.450434 5.935340 9.858722 15.667084 24.720075
2025-05-18 0.785535 1.632908 3.104510 5.719967 10.084623 16.861341 27.881646
2025-05-25 0.589484 1.346190 2.758305 5.424239 10.110672 17.714872 30.570458
2025-06-01 0.471378 1.173586 2.572186 5.358432 10.484913 19.126562 34.229963
2025-06-08 0.379579 1.028288 2.404086 5.288404 10.826798 20.498190 37.924349
2025-06-15 0.339331 0.986372 2.431562 5.589694 11.865380 23.136120 43.937965
2025-06-22 0.284639 0.893672 2.332252 5.618169 12.388224 24.908644 48.600340
2025-06-29 0.238026 0.807149 2.227775 5.615574 12.842860 26.588117 53.219039
2025-07-06 0.196444 0.722961 2.115610 5.588181 13.265069 28.285652 58.087875
2025-07-13 0.184014 0.721054 2.205222 6.031586 14.716899 32.068712 67.099595
2025-07-20 0.161245 0.679365 2.184879 6.215589 15.639513 34.909088 74.566912
2025-07-27 0.143866 0.649432 2.189357 6.459403 16.718699 38.146394 83.023559
2025-08-03 0.120868 0.590670 2.100338 6.454683 17.238530 40.296030 89.522931
2025-08-10 0.095757 0.512547 1.935413 6.223882 17.206309 41.299542 93.825186
2025-08-17 0.073672 0.435160 1.751355 5.905789 16.921530 41.735787 97.003913
2025-08-24 0.060740 0.391040 1.662220 5.835023 17.227668 43.463403 102.943680
2025-08-31 0.049996 0.351300 1.577016 5.759624 17.510696 45.158728 108.926189
2025-09-07 0.046692 0.348346 1.622374 6.084151 18.860222 49.348865 120.466199
2025-09-14 0.039889 0.322309 1.575399 6.114817 19.437051 51.814240 128.437789